Open Mike 16/08/25
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6:00 am, August 16th, 2025 - 55 comments
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Today's Posts (updated through the day):
Disgraced pollster, David Farrar, publishes another questionable poll, for political purposes.
It seems the far right have been blindsided by the collapse of their kangaroo court and in a rush to generate some government propaganda on the back of its implosion the TPU have commissioned Curia to show some predetermined poll results to form the basis of a press release.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/covid-19-inquiry-kiwis-disagree-with-jacinda-ardern-chris-hipkins-not-fronting-public-hearing-poll-results-show/NSAJAJYI7NBMROJULXP2Y6XWQ4/
Hoskings and Duplicity-Allen were particular rabid yesterday whipping their listeners into a frenzy.
I’ve released this from the back end, with the following Mod note. Please read and let us know what you think.
I’ll link below to two other comments that were discussed in the back end. The second one has a reply to you from Lprent, I’m going to quote but I’d suggest reading the whole thing because he is giving guidance on how to criticise Farrar without creating legal or robust debate problems for TS.
https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-13-05-2025/#comment-2033592
https://thestandard.org.nz/daily-review-11-07-2025/#comment-2038433
In your comment today, the problem I have is where you say “the TPU have commissioned Curia to show some predetermined poll results to form the basis of a press release”.
The way you have phased that, is that it’s a fact that the TPU paid Curia to run a poll where Curia manipulated the results (in some undetermined way). Which in the absence of evidence from you, I will assume you cannot know. If you express it as informed opinion instead, then it’s less likely to be a problem for TS.
You bring a lot of useful commentary to TS. Even though I disagree with you on some things, and find your rhetoric a bit too much Young Ones Rik, I think you are a net benefit commenter. The problem is the amount of time the mods have to spend on your comments. If you take this mod note and the others as guidance on how to tweak how you comment here, those problems will largely disappear.
Maybe "predetermined" is a bit strong but IMHO I don't see much wrong with the criticism of Curia in Mutton's post.
As evidence I repeat, from a post I made this week, that there are five polling firms in NZ but since October 2023* only ONE of these, Curia, has the Green Party under 10%, and Curia has found them under 10% EIGHT TIMES.
This is evidence that Curia is manipulation polling figures.
*I only looked back to October 2023
The problem isn't criticising Curia. It's actually nothing to do with Curia. It's when a commenter asserts a fact that is an opinion. Sometimes that strays close to being defamatory, which is a legal issue for the owners of TS. I tend to err on the side of caution, because I don't have a legal background, but two of the authors here do and so we discuss it in the back end. Please read what Lynn said, because he is both an owner of TS, a moderator, and has extensive experience with legal problems for the site.
It's also an issue for robust debate. When someone asserts fact without evidence, it skews debate.I commented below on the problems with the poll and the potential for it being used as political PR, but I also pointed out the problem of being being partisan and yelling liar!
I don't think this does count as evidence. It's a theory, but someone who understands polling needs to analyse the theory.
For instance, Roy Morgan is well known for overestimating the Green vote. Are they intentionally manipulating their polls as well?
I'm not saying Curia aren't, I'm saying that we know of two polls that have been problematic and led to investigations (and one of those was only partially upheld). I've read Lprent's post about that, but I also follow Lew (political commentator on twitter) who also understands polling and calls out the left on its partisan blindness (he does this on the left's response to MSM as well, but he's equal opportunity and calls out the right for the same thing).
All of which is to say, Curia may be manipulating polling, but as Lew points out, if they were it would show in the results and he doesn't think it does.
I'll link to some of Lew's tweets on this when I get the chance.
"For instance, Roy Morgan is well known for overestimating the Green vote. Are they intentionally manipulating their polls as well?"
You may have a point. Over the period since October 23-Greens' Polling Results have been:
Roy Morgan (no party links?) 18 polls 13.4%
Talbot Mills (Labour linked) 12 polls 11.3%
Curia (Taxpayer Union linked) 19 polls 10.7%
yep. This is why people say to look at the trend of multiple polls. Curia under estimate, RM over estimate, the other companies even things out.
Important questions to ask when comparing Roy Morgan with Curia:
Is the owner also an aggressive political activist who also runs a blog home to some of the most partisan commenters in NZ?
Is the owner deeply embedded within at least two political parties and associated activist vehicles?
Has the polling company been forced out of the industry body under the weight of complaints about his controversial polling methods, several of which have been upheld?
It's just the standard lie ,lie lie routine, unfortunately enough people will believe it.
the only way to know how many people think the ministers should have fronted up is to do some serious polling. The state of play is we don't know.
No idea if Curia is overtly manipulating polling, but the methodology is described in the NZH piece. Not my area, but it's a small sample (500 instead of the 1,000 for voting intentions), the poll was taken from a pool of online respondents, and a large margin of error.
Did TPU commission this and then leak it as part of their partisan PR? Who knows. Is it outside the bounds of what other political interests do? I don’t know, but would like to.
And we still don't know what NZers think.
Calling TPU liars is an easy point, but I don’t think it helps politics. The right just call the left liars too, and then where do we go?
They may not have physically fronted but my understanding is they have asked all questions, and weren't supenoured(help) so not actually required to, this point has been covered over .
it's only a lie if either the poll was manipulated or Curia misrepresent the findings. Asking the question itself isn't a lie.
The poll was manipulated by the (mis)leading question.
Thanks Incognito. Exactly what has happened.
It has been well known for many years, there are strong links between J William's TPU, D Farrar's Curia, the National and ACT parties, and C Slater's bunch of gruesome toadies, therefore Muttonbird's comments are not out of place. Given the numerous past examples (see N Hager’s Dirty Politics) I doubt any of them would be up for defamation proceedings.
You've missed the point Anne. The issue is asserting fact without evidence instead of expressing opinion. Which I clearly explained.
How is it misleading?
See Drowsy’s comment: https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-16-08-25/#comment-2041592.
The participants in the poll were given highly misleading background context that deliberately left out key information, i.e., lying by omission.
The NZ Herald published this BS poll without any critical analysis or commentary on the poll itself, which makes them complicit in this farce.
honestly, I find DMK's comments often difficult to make sense of, and this one is a prime example. My brain doesn't process explanation by quote very well in the absence of direct explanation (and the formatting doesn't help either).
If I understand correctly, the assertion is that the survey question is misleading because while ministers did refuse to appear, they agreed to help in other ways. Did I get that right?
Those former Ministers had already done interviews and exhausted all questions in those, they had provided information, and fully collaborated with the Inquiry. This is one reason why they didn’t get summoned to appear in public hearings because it would not add any new information. The poll question was framed to mislead – it did leave out this essential context and used future tense “will” – it was a set-up, in my opinion.
Thanks. I’d like to see this discussed in the context of how poll questions are constructed and what the norms are.
Part of the reason why I’m pushing this is because I think we have a partisan problem on the left. Another example would be the idea that the mainstream media is biased against the left. When the mainstream media reports negatively about Labour for instance, there is a general reaction on the left to accuse the media of bias. Mostly, I think the media is more interested in making money and that’s what the problem is and that they’re quite happy to go after other parties when that makes the money.
Taking reactionary positions against the mainstream media, or the right, don’t get us out of the mess that we’re in.
The NZ Herald has even followed up with an Editorial to drive up the numbers for the site.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/kiwis-demand-public-answers-from-former-ministers-in-covid-19-inquiry-editorial/YICF5G3XZFFYLJEASMB3UKLTCU/ [paywalled]
The headline is misleading, of course; they continue with publishing & propagating propaganda that’s to be expected from the Pravda of the National Party.
sure, the issue isn't whether the Nat machine isn't operating or not (it is). It's whether Curia polling should be written off a priori because them being part of the machine = always corrupt polling.
No, not a priori write-off, but this poll was a set-up from the get-go. You’re the first one in this thread to use the word “corrupt”.
Corrupt is shorthanded for what MB said in their original comment. Probably applies to bwag’s point about political lying as well.
As I said before, the pollster lied by omission, IMO. They may use plausible denial as defence claiming that people should/would/could have known the important context that was left out.
I know what you said, and I hold your opinion in higher esteem than people just going ‘they’re corrupt’. I still don’t have the context of polling norms in NZ.
I’ll also note that the NZH piece outlined some of the methological problems with the survey (but it too didn’t explain that well)
I agree that the word “corrupt” gets brandished too often by people who don’t seem to know the (legal) definition of the word.
I agree that writing off certain sources by default is stupid (aka shooting the messenger) and counter-productive, as it ignores that even within biased and/or partisan media outlets there are good well-researched balanced pieces to be found.
That said, to see Curia, the Onion, and the Granny Herald working hand-in-glove to dump this poll in the hypersphere of outrage and then milk it till the cows come home does raise a few flags.
The NZH piece didn’t outline any “methological [sic] problems with the survey” [you man: poll], but even if it had done so, this obfuscated the fundamental problem with the leading question put to the people in the poll. The poll must be rejected because it’s based on a false premise; the NZ Herald didn’t do due diligence before publishing this shit because then it would have realised it’s worth shit and shouldn’t be published by a self-respecting news site.
I could go on and point out explicit examples of how the public has been played, but I’ll rest my case.
I’m sure the poll was a set up from the get go, my points here aren’t saying that dirty politics isn’t happening, I’m saying that the left needs to do better than just pointing at Curia and co and saying corrupt!
One of the things missing from this ongoing conversation is input on what is normal for polling and how far from that this poll, and Curia in general straying. I see a lot of assertions but not a lot of explanation.
Except Hipkins did 'front up' to the Royal Commission – twice.
If Bishop is looking for politicians who "do not care" about the effects their decisions have on everyday Kiwis, then he should look closer to home, imho.
DPM and twerker in chief suggests "Hipkins and co loved the limelight"
You might be interested in push polling:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll
https://www.polyas.com/election-glossary/push-polling
https://ballotpedia.org/Push_polling
There's a very strong case that Curia has indulged in push-polling here, and absolute evidence that its client and media proxies are using the headline result for political purposes (Hosking, Duplicity-Allen, and Jordan Williams have all employed this poll in their commentary over the last few days).
Maybe we should also look out for increased activity here to spread National talking points among the left.
Recently CGT and COVID enquiry non attendance.
Sorry, where did my comment this morning go?
I put it in Pending until I have time to look at with regards to defamation and/or overstepping the robust debate line. This is at least the third time mods have had to discuss one of your comments. When I get the chance I will release the comment with a note and links to previous issues, so you know what is going on.
Well, NACT1 were always going there (esp now they have FedFarm lobbyist MP's)
Pointing out the obvious (well obvious to some..)
Will the next gummint have the testicular fortitude to end the current farce of putting cannabis behind medical walls..?
There are many reasons for this:
1) money: why are we forfeiting the large amount of revenue that could be garnered from fully legalising and taxing cannabis..?
Another money aspect came to me the other day as I drove past a roadside fruit stand ..as in people with the requisite skills should be able to grow/sell cannabis from such stalls .or at markets etc…
Why not..?..what is different from any other plant that is sold at roadside stalls …?
2) health:
Why do we have the current farce of doctors (essentially wasting their time) prescribing what is the safest intoxicant on the planet. .?…meanwhile next door the most damaging drug in nz..alcohol ..is openly peddled//advertised ..?
(If it wasn't so fucked up..it would be funny..)
(A week or so ago I was called by health dept .and asked if I would do an assessment to see if I should have a scan etc to see if I was in danger of lung cancer .
I smoked ciggys from age 13 to early thirties..
Smoked crack cocaine for quite awhile…
And have smoked cannabis since age 17..
I was assessed at being of low risk .so no need for scan etc…
.. doesn't that say all that needs to be said. .as far as the perceived dangers from long term use..?
(A couple of years ago I had a lung function test ..and was told I have the lung function of a twenty-something. .
..so…y'know ..!…w.t.f. are waiting for ..?)
It's time to end what is a medical farce ..
(I also have concerns about the loss of the institutional knowledge around growing from all those old blackmarket (usually) guys ..)
Funny you should bring that up, the logger rhythm put this video in my feed. It's mind boggling the range of products and the vocabulary.
I'm not sure whether legalisation is the way to go. Decriminalisation would deal with most of the main problems, black market, our caramel cousins getting disproportionate criminal records, lots of police time tied up.
Legalising brings in the big companies which have the tendency to push out smaller operators.
I think there is room for both..'the big operators'..(I would like to be able to buy a can of weed drink…(currently banned here..according to my weed doc..for some arcane/irrational reason)..and of course because they would be the source of the tax revenue..
..and also plenty of room for talented cottage industry folks as well..
We already have decriminalized weed..
…if I can sit in my car outside a police station smoking my med-pot…with no fear of any censure…that is decriminalized by any other name..
We are stuck in a halfway house between illegal and legal…and forfeiting all that revenue..(that could be ring-fenced for health..?)
Time to end this silliness..
But you’ll more than likely have to walk home or take a taxi.
That is yet to be all tested in court…
If it stays in the system for 36 hrs after consumption..and will test positive for those 36 hours…way after consumption/intoxication..
..that makes a joke of those tests..
No, it makes a joke of your assertion.
If you test positive or refuse a test at the roadside you will be banned from driving for 12 hours.
Feel free to test it in court to prove your assertion.
Did you deliberately miss both of my points..?
I'll try again…
I could sit on a park bench across the road from etc etc…
Mmm-kay…?
And just in case you didn't get it the second time..the points are that we already have de-facto legal-weed..
..and that the weed breathalyzers are a joke..for the reasons I cited ..
Hope that helps clarify that for you..and yes..my bad..for the sitting in the car etc etc..
Is that all the loose ends tidied up..?
Focus, Phil, focus!
You were sitting in your car outside a police station smoking your med-pot.
That is correct until you start the engine.
Banning from driving for 12 hours is not the same as getting a criminal record but, as you stated correctly, it will be tested in court still – AFAIK, the Act doesn’t come into force until 1 April 2026.
I thought we had already covered all that..
And of course my original car example still stands…
..all I need is a designated driver…
That is an interesting watch..
My son recently spent a month in California..in an area known for it's weed..and he alerted me to that boom/bust cycle experienced there..
Perhaps the most stunning stat from that video is that a couple of years ago weed was $3,500 a pound ..now it is $500 a pound..(!)
We are seeing echoes of that California experience here ..in that the legal pot is more expensive..(approx $400 per oz)…while the price of blackmarket has dropped to about $200 an oz..
And to my mind this is yet another reason for full legalisation…in that the price for weed will drop dramatically from that.. to my mind…exorbitant $400 oz…
..$100 an ounce sounds about where we need to be..to my mind…
But anyway..thanks for that link…anyone with the slightest interest in this matter..should watch it..
Weed is still illegal at the federal level..
..but I saw the other day somewhere that trump is talking about changing that..
So..if he does..this gummint will be demonstrably more reactionary than trump…heh..!
And of course also the last gummint… demonstrably more reactionary than trump..
That’s gotta make them think..you’d think..?
This government’s gross mishandling of the economy well and truly global news now:
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/new-zealands-population-exodus-hits-13-year-high-economy-worsens-2025-08-15/
When will our own political and business commenters. Instead of running interference, start asking hard questions?
Well Trump just came up against a proper superpower leader and got owned.
Same his tariff dealings with Xi Jinping.
Come up against an Alpha and Trump is just another simp.
He needs to come up against Luxon for a bit of light relief.
Hasn't that already happened..?
..and didn't luxon let trump twirl him around his little finger..?…
..and around and around he went..
Let's talk about luxon..and the spectacular crash in his support..down to 20% ..
..in just 18 months…
..that is effing epic..
..there must be murmurs about rolling him..
..so..who do they go with..?
..I reckon Willis has to be leading the pack…
Pathetic. tRump stands on the red carpet fizzing at the bung and the moment he spots Poots, he starts clapping just like my dog wriggles her arse when she sees me.
Surprised he didn't roll onto his back and pee on his belly, too.
@atrupar.com
get a load of how excited Trump is to see Putin
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lwhkrntv3i2p
Giving the Vatican a run for it's money.
/
https://archive.li/DRiEV (haaretz)
A widespread problem
A CBS News investigation has found that many accused American pedophiles flee to Israel, and bringing them to justice can be difficult.
Jewish Community Watch (JCW), an American organization that tracks accused pedophiles, has been trying for years to find Karow and help bring him to justice.
JCW says Karow and other wanted men and women have been able to exploit a right known as the Law of Return, whereby any Jewish person can move to Israel and automatically gain citizenship.
Since the small organization started tracking accused pedophiles in 2014, it says more than 60 have fled from the U.S. to Israel. Given its limited resources to identify these individuals, JCW says the actual number is likely much larger.
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/how-jewish-american-pedophiles-hide-from-justice-in-israel/
A top cybersecurity official for the Israeli government was arrested in Nevada during an undercover operation targeting child sex predators.
Tom Alexandrovich was apprehended and faced felony charges of “Luring a Child with Computer for Sex Act,” according to the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department, which assisted in conducting the operation from nearby Henderson, Nevada.
[…]
Ynet, an Israeli news outlet, confirmed that “an employee of the Israel National Cyber Directorate” was “briefly detained for questioning.” The publication did not name Alexandrovich and omitted the fact that he was arrested.
Netanyahu’s office issued a statement and denied that the employee in question was arrested at all.
“A state employee who traveled to the U.S. for professional matters was questioned by American authorities during his stay,” the prime minister’s office said. “The employee, who does not hold a diplomatic visa, was not arrested and returned to Israel as scheduled.”
https://www.mediaite.com/crime/israeli-official-arrested-in-nevada-child-sex-operation-is-released-and-back-in-israel/
Remember when John Key aspired to close the wage gap between New Zealand and Australia?
https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2017-11/2025tf-summary-nov09.pdf
The enemy is in the keep.
Watch closely as the media ignores the rail ferry debacle, reheats a story that’s so old it’s compost in the microwave, misrepresenting it as they go and then we’ll see land and then assets available to buy. Think conservation estate, health services, education facilities (formerly schools)…
Audrey Young? Yeh, right.
There’s nobody in the media with any fight or any support left. The Herald has gone to the billionaire weirdo class, the Platform remains, Stuff is -ed…
The Spinoff damages almost no one and is occupying a niche, not a battle position.
Newsroom would, if it were published like the Listener, North and South, Metro or Herald of occasion.
Big election coming up and ground game is guna be hella important, as usual, but even more so.