Open Mike 30/08/25
Open Mike 30/08/25
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6:00 am, August 30th, 2025 - 14 comments
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Today's Posts (updated through the day):
Adrian Orr Pushed Out By Neil Quigley – Then The Cover Up Started With Nicola Willis’ Knowledge
Councils’ obligations to Māori
New Post up:
Councils’ obligations to Māori
Thomas Coughlan puts his finger on one of the key reasons the economy is tanking….and it's not going to be much better before the election (paywalled):
"The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Statement, published last week, bleakly revised down residential investment forecasts, money spent on building new homes and renovating existing ones. Since last November’s numbers, a cumulative $9.2 billion in today’s prices has evaporated from the bank’s forecasts for residential investment between mid-2024 and the end of 2027 – a staggering sum,"
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/a-property-crash-that-is-good-for-the-country-but-bad-for-its-mps-thomas-coughlan/EPJMTHYQNBDMLDL6GJVIANVIIU/
Hardly rocket science, high interest rates, a significant fall in value equal an end to topping up the mortgage to renovate. Hell take a look at small boats the prices on secomd hand a through the floor and orders on new ones have tanked. I'd say over 75% of new trailer boats were purchased via a mortgage top up.
Its going to take years to recover.
The one thing we don't want to recover is house prices. We need to continue to encourage the current orderly fall where mortgage holders are able to continue affording to pay their loan to the banks.
If both Labour and National hold their nerve and don't give in to the Councils with the supply side reforms people will realise that it no longer makes no sense to "invest" in residential housing.
The investment dollars will flow to the productive economy and there will be more money for Health Education Infrastructure etc. And best of all our young and future generations will be able to experience the immense benefits of owning not renting.
There will be pain once this realization takes hold
https://www.stuff.co.nz/home-property/360801857/nz-homes-overvalued-40-cent-no-ones-talking-about-until-now
As for the investment dollars flowing into the productive economy, I don't think so.
As far as I'm aware, most people that invest in housing are using borrowed funding. And banks tend to favour housing investment opposed to the riskier productive economy.
Really?
Where are all these ex-housing-owners going to put their money?
NZ banks are currently lending net zero to businesses compared to housing mortgages.
Orderly decline my ass.
There is currently an orderly decline in housing prices. Mortgages continue to be paid and no banks are asking for more security from home owners because of falling prices. Interest rates are falling which lowers mortgage repayments.
Property prices are dynamic ( Banks, Councils Insurers) and valuations change constantly. Hopefully there won't be too many ex housing owners for economic reasons
The advantage of investing in property vs the productive economy was always the ability to leverage. And so from 2000 to 2022 (with a blip 2008/09) everyone who bought a ticket won a prize.
Getting from where we are now to a place where future generations will be able to own a house will be an intricate interplay between government policy, private development and finance.
I am encouraged because both major parties housing policies are aligned to move us towards making affordable home ownership a possibility again.
Attached is a video of Chris Bishop paying homage (26th minute) to Phil Twyford as the originator of the policy that National is now pursuing.
It is generational and requires the ongoing support of all political parties.
Do you have evidence to support your assertion?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/540806/where-are-the-mortgagee-sales
Mortgages continue to be paid and no banks are asking for more security from home owners because of falling prices.
Do you have evidence to support your assertion?
Yes the evidence is in the article that you linked. The NZ Banking Association Chief Executive is quoted "Mortgage sales remain extremely low despite the economic climate" And " They're still very low from past cycles – about 200 (mortgagee sales) over the past year versus more than 2500 during the worst times post GFC"
We have in Kieran McAnulty, Phil Twyford, Chris Bishop and Chris Penk a genuine committment to solving the housing cost problem by reforming the RMA, putting pressure on Councils to release more land and allow taller buildings and simplyfing building approvals.
The last two years have been hard with rising unemployment, cost of living increases and for home owners large rates and maintenance and insurance increases. To have only 200 forced sales shows the centre is holding.
If we stay the path and these initiatives work it will do more to reduce poverty and inequality in our society than anything else the Government could do.
You ignore the other stats & info in the link that I provided and solely focus on the final outcome (i.e., mortgagee sales) that all parties try their hardest to avoid to suit your frame and your selective reading confirms strong bias.
I didn’t know that Kieran McAnulty, Phil Twyford, Chris Bishop, and Chris Penk are in cahoots together to reform the RMA and I assume I’ll have to take your word for this bi-partisan approach too?
That’s another bold statement that beggars believe without bold support to back it up. I’d love to see your analysis of the tenuous relationship between the RMA and poverty and inequality in our society. Is it the ‘trickle down theory’, by any chance?
And then there is this:
https://www.thepress.co.nz/nz-news/360799217/mayor-confronts-ungodly-price-three-waters-reform.
There is a tsunami of costs about to hit homeowners that will cause widespread pain
How much of a productive economy is there still likely to be, when so many skilled and/or enterprising folk have shot through to Oz, and there'll be an acute shortage of the sort of people needed to run one?
The quiet bits out loud.
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In a statement on Wednesday at the PSD Summer University, the Portuguese head of state also considered that "Europe minimized Mr Trump and Trumpism."
“The ultimate leader of the world’s greatest superpower, objectively, is a Soviet or Russian asset.” These were the words spoken on Wednesday by the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, about the American counterpart, Donald Trump, who has been trying to establish himself as the main mediator of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.
Despite these efforts by Washington, the Portuguese head of state considered – in statements under the PSD Summer University, an annual initiative aimed at young party cadres, broadcast by CNN Portugal – that the management of this crisis, by Trump, has not been beneficial to Ukraine. “In objective terms, the new US leadership has strategically favored the Russian Federation,” Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa said in Castelo de Vide.
An example of this, he elaborated, is the fact that "terrible threats" from the United States have arisen on a daily basis in the sense of the "application of sanctions" to Moscow. But without, so far, any of these promises have come true, under the governance of the new American leader.
In addition, according to the Lusa agency, the President of the Republic also pointed out, referring to the conflict in Eastern Europe, that Donald Trump is trying to play the role of an arbitrator who only intends to negotiate "with one of the teams", with Kiev and the European states need to "pretend" themselves in order to have an effective participation in the last negotiations.
https://pt.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/08/28/lider-dos-eua-e-um-ativo-russo-as-palavras-de-marcelo-sobre-trump
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