Open Mike 25/09/25
Open Mike 25/09/25
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6:00 am, September 25th, 2025 - 51 comments
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Today's Posts (updated through the day):
The Treasury’s dire warning: New Zealand may have to look a bit more like Europe | The Spinoff
Instead of the current Coalition of Cockups, destroying the future, borrowing for tax cuts for the wealthy.
And the Greens. The only party with a credible, costed and vetted by economists, proposal for the future.
HeAraAnamata_Onepager_Web
Nice video, shame about the song.
Best of luck bringing the 1970s back.
We finally have the only reserve bank chief who knows anything about stabilising the economy of a Nordic welfare state. We've never had one of those before.
The closest we've had to a Capital Gains Tax was the Bright Line Test brought in under National in 2015 and made stronger by Labour. Don't need to do anything weird or new. Just reinstate in strength the policy both sides of the House have already instigated and sustained.
Yeah. Heaven help us that we actually bring in policies that are simply "business as usual" in the Nordic countries.
And continue to slavishly imitate the policies that have failed here, the UK and USA since the 80’s.
RNZ Morning Report (25 Sept) had a story on Patea residents being told to boil water because an aquifer was likely to be contaminated.
Nothing was said about the probable cause of the contamination. Why the omission?
Seems the disinfection isn't up to it.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/574030/residents-push-back-on-patea-boil-water-notice
Seems the council's new plant will be starting in 6 weeks.
But what is causing the aquifer contamination? That looks like a no-go zone for the media.
Did Adrian Orr leave chaos behind him ? IMO seems there are some quite divergent views….on the net, and here on The Standard.
In the article…who exactly…is saying this? IMO not really clear?
And in the above Link seeking Ol' Don Brash's opinion? FFS. IMO a neolib/freemarketeer ideologue…Who then of course went on to become Nat party, ACT etc etc….
Dr Breman's proposal to actually go around the country and hear from actual citizens of New Zealand will enlighten her quickly of how the Reserve Bank deliberately helped cause the recession we are in.
Appointment of the new Reserve Bank chief follows a familiar pattern (as demonstrated by Fonterra):
A commentator on RNZ noted that the Reserve Bank didn't have a succession plan for senior roles.
What was the fee from the executive search firm for the RB appointment?
Fonterra chief is a kiwi.
Infinitely prefer tge new RBNZ Chief CV to Hawksby's.
Sometimes we just don't have the leadership depth.
"Sometimes we just don't have the leadership depth"
That's the neo liberal way.
The rot starts at the top in the likes of the RB and permeates all the way down to kitchens and engineering workshops.
Now employers are screaming out for cooks and welders.
It doesn't have to be thus.
In fact it's one of the criticisms Michael Riddle has of the RB. Not enough effort put into bringing on our own staff.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2019005722/dr-anna-breman-appointed-reserve-bank-governor
New Zealand has on average very weak senior management.
At best we are a skill incubator. We don't make large companies with great salaries here.
We have plenty of cooks and welders who are unemployed and seeking work right now. It's our employers who prefer to beg to loosen working visa rules rather than employ our skilled unemployed people that are the criminals.
you forgot number 4. – accept their early resignation with a golden handshake.
That is the National Party line Ad-odd that you subscribe to it hook line and sinker.
Personally I think much of the blame for the recession stems from the high rate of house price increases in NZ over many years, not just in the Covid/Orr era, followed by a new COC government that slashed spending on building and other things while at the same time talking up the recession, which became self-fulfilling. Certainly this talk would have encouraged many to leave for Oz.
The RBNZ was really clear it wanted to cause a recession:
Adrian Orr admits Reserve Bank is 'deliberately engineering recession' | Stuff
Also you will recall the PM when he got into power was clear he wanted to shrink the entire proportion of public expenditure as a percentage of GDP. Government is about 30% of expenditure so that is a massive economic negative.
In particular the sharp drop in state expenditure in construction is the primary cause of the construction collapse. It wasn't just the ferries that were cancelled. It was the actual collapse of the entire Kainga Ora masterplanning system.
Luxon has been clear he would do this, since 2022:
Christopher Luxon wants more 'discipline' on spending | RNZ
At the same time, our exports have been strong in our main categories of agricultural commodities, wine beer and other beverages, tourism, and until recently services. So exports are not the cause of our recession.
We were well into a recession when Trump's tariffs caused a turn in sentiment. So it ain't that either.
This is the sharpest decrease in GDP we have had since COVID, and it is entirely state-manufactured.
All that is fair enough, except far too much blame has been laid at Orr's feet.
Per your link, he felt a 1% "job rich" recession was necessary. He expected a bounce back after taming inflation.
Luxon, as you say, screwed this up. This is especially true in relation to Luxon proudly slashing and burning Kainga Ora. You will remember that Key sold off state houses and state enterprises in order to pay for tax cuts for the better off. But Key finessed the Kainga Ora sell off so it was less evident; Luxon is far more blatant.
Bishop/Willis/Luxon simply don't care-they are on a Trump-lite mission.
Ok. Well thats your take on it. I hadnt actually seen this earlier Standard Post….a bit more revealing.
Oh no Adrian Orr was very clear that the RBNZ deliberately caused the recession. Sure wasn't the only cause, but the RBNZ was quite deliberate in making it worse:
Adrian Orr admits Reserve Bank is 'deliberately engineering recession' | Stuff
There are plenty of reasons to diss Winston Peters but generally he has been a good Foreign Affairs minister.
I don't know if this is beyond him but why is our response to the horrors in Gaza dependent on what is happening in New York and the UN.
I would have thought this was an issue where the pollies look back to their constituents to shape our response.
With our core allies split and opposing, Peters is right to read the international room.
One to watch is NATO making a bigger ask of NZ, Au, and Japan to defend Europe.
https://www.politico.eu/article/radoslaw-sikorski-poland-russia-un-security-council-nato/
Yip and probably sooner rather than later, with Poland going to shoot the shit out of mad putains drones and planes.
There's life in Winston et. On current poll tracking NZF are about to overtake the Greens.
Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election – Wikipedia
He was giving of a distinct Biden vibe last time I saw him, bit doddery
Entirely fair but remember the last left PM we had was 37 when she retired, and lasted barely more than 1 term. She was young, and weak, and clearly barely made it through a second election.
Whereas Winston Peters still gets to call out the top 4 emitters to their faces.
Live: 'A battle we cannot win': Winston Peters drops 'a truth bomb' at UN function | Stuff
True to form, never miss a chance to bash Jacinda…
The amount of meaningless hype going around the world about Jacinda Ardern is plain silly. How is it possible that Labour could go from most powerful parliamentary party we've had since Savage to utterly trashed inside 2 years? Oh sure it was everything else's fault.
Sigh
You’re conflating power and influence.
You’re conflating personal brand and party politics.
You’re ignoring Covid spike/MMP-anomaly and post-Covid rebound/correction.
For the record, I do not subscribe to any Personal Admiration Society, but your comment is shallow, spiteful, and lazy.
A very good take on the mood of the boardroom. This final paragraph quoted is very on point.
'Lobbying from the corporate elite'
https://x.com/bryce_edwards/status/1970931133559996699
Yes great to see this.
Pretty easy on The Standard to see what the mood of the left is.
Goddam this government is useless.
Mood of the Boardroom has been driving me bananas for years – and especially why no other moods are ever deemed important enough for the Herald to feature. The obvious rationale, which no doubt the Herald would use if they were ever asked the question, is that the mood of the boardroom will have more effect on the public in the immediate future than most (any?) other moods. The obvious follow up question, which the Herald would never be able to ask itself, is whether that fact might be contributing to the problems we face as a country, rather than providing a possible way out of them.
(11) NZ’s “Chumocracy” and the suppression of Prof Robert MacCulloch | LinkedIn
Well. We always knew that!
KJT. Random musings on all sorts of things.: Corporatism and Neo-Liberalism
The really scary part is we also import managers that have not made the grade in their own countries (Otherwise they wouldn't be interested in a job in NZ), to stuff things up for even higher pay.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/574072/watch-live-health-minister-promises-75-000-more-procedures-under-65m-plan
Thats about 800$ per procedure!!!!
Sounds a bit low for a medical prceedure
Note, it says DIAGNOSTIC PROCEDURES
That could be just a scan. Or a finger up your arse. We all know who has got Simeon under control, cough.
Oops sorry.
Former Te Whatu Ora Board Chair Rob Campbell takes Simeon Brown's announcement to pieces. Delightful to listen to.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/middayreport/audio/2019005766/health-minister-announces-new-funding-for-health-nz
Spray and walk away.
Gotta get the P word crafted in there to remind you where they're taking NZ Health.
AND gov of reserve bank get $800k !!!!!!
No shit…
//
A new study has unveiled the latest consequence of private-equity ownership on a hospital — more patient deaths in the emergency room.
The analysis, done by researchers at Harvard Medical School, University of Chicago, and University of Pittsburgh, adds to a growing body of literature that shows the profit-seeking model can not only raise prices and health care spending, but also have negative impacts on patient care.
In particular, after a private equity acquisition, patients are more likely to die in the emergency department, largely due to decreases in overall staffing and salary expenditures.
https://archive.li/Z6r60 (boston globe)
This is not surprising. We've seen the same behaviour in the corporate doctor model with the doctors earning less as profit/fees are extracted and in the dentists where companies like Lumino do the same and set "monthly targets" based on the most profitable procedures.
The same behaviour as they strip firms of their land and buildings built up over many years of operation and charge them back to same for exorbitant fees.
Pay themselves large salaries as it is a legal was to strip profit out of a company into their own pockets. That's all the large salaries are – legal theft.
No different really to how Hart did a leveraged buy-out of government print. Sweet deal paid for by selling the government back its own stuff at high prices.
Some of this occurs in NZ because of the Rogernomics change to the legislation that basically says a company primary responsibility is to the shareholders. Once the shareholders are the most important you get get away with shit like borrowing to pay dividends (water companies in the UK, power companies here in NZ), and deals like this become the norm as the shareholders will be OK – if it goes right there will be big profits, if it goes wrong as the debt to purchase belongs to the company and the asset strip plus fees will mean they have already got their 20% towards the purchase price back.
It is a rigged game.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/05/private-equity-firms-bankruptcies-plunder-book/673896/
Theb is also the strategy National uses to make the books look better esp under John Key e.g. special dividends from housing and getting one power company to sell to another power company and pay special dividends.
“At first glance, “dividend recapitalization” might sound like jargon from a dry economics lecture, but it’s far from mundane. Imagine being able to instantly extract cash from a company without selling it. Sounds intriguing, right? That’s precisely what dividend recapitalization allows private equity firms to do. By leveraging this strategy, they can pull substantial amounts of money out of their investments and return it to themselves or their investors. It’s a financial maneuver that can generate impressive short-term returns.
However, this seemingly clever tactic carries a double-edged sword. While it can provide immediate financial benefits, it often comes at a steep price. The company subjected to a dividend recapitalization is left grappling with heavy debt, which can severely impair its long-term health and stability. This can lead to disastrous consequences for the business itself and everyone connected to it—employees, customers, and communities.”
https://www.jsmorlu.com/financial-business-guides/private-equity-trap/
Can anyone fill me in on why Trump completely changed his mind about Ukraine and Russia? I can't figure it out.
He's a leaf in the wind.Don't look for logic
More likely he's worked out putin has played him like a fiddle, so now it's personal, I hope he doesn't flop back.
It's all about trump in trumps head.
One explanation, it's a bit of watch (32min) but a point of view, from Ukraine Today
https://youtu.be/hatleiJoqds
Could also just be the art of war (Sun Tzu)
Picking sides?
https://xcancel.com/GeopoliticsDH/status/1970159598251426076
https://xcancel.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1970958040623968283