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Open Mike 05/09/25

Written By: - Date published: 11:26 am, September 5th, 2025 - 44 comments
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44 comments on “Open Mike 05/09/25 ”

  1. Todays Posts 1

    Today's Posts (updated through the day):

    Simeon Brown toying with Kiwi lives

  2. SPC 2

    Budget documents have revealed a nearly $8.5 billion hole in future funding

    Wonder why?

    The departments were asked to tally up their cost pressures (the costs of delivering their services) as well as reprioritisations (savings that could be made) over the forecast period.

    And found what

    A paper from the Office of the Finance Minister on 1 April showed the plans presented cost pressures totalling $27.9b over the forecast period, with $19.7b of reprioritisation options to offset the pressures.

    This left the gap between the costs departments presented and what they said could be found through reprioritisations – what were called "unfunded pressures" – as $8.48b.

    Inflationary pressures and reprioritisations to cope.

    Well well.

    Is there any more detail

    The majority of the cost pressures rested in Education, the Defence Force, Health, Disability Support Services, and Transport.

    The unfunded pressures were mostly found in Health, Social Development, Transport, and MBIE

    I wonder how businesses are surviving in this inflation environment, low profits might make it difficult to fund maintenance or provide for replacement of assets (depreciation) etc.

    The key drivers behind the cost pressures were identified as $8.6b in inflationary increases in goods, services, and operational expenses, and $5.6b of volume – the increase in service demands due to population and demographic changes. Wages were also identified as a driver, but the number was redacted.

    A lot of quantification of the problem.

    This reminds me of when sinking lid was applied by Muldoon (in a time of higher inflation than anything this century) and one had to identify areas of spending that needed to separated out (immune from the sinking lid) because of necessity – contracts with escalation clauses etc.

    The question is, is there an economist who can explain why they are in this situation to help them out of it?

    This makes it seem that Treasury is run by accountants, running government like a household budget?

    Treasury advises that we need a period of sustained operating surpluses over the medium term, whereas we are currently running a structural operating deficit of more than 2% of GDP. Bending the curve is essential to our fiscal strategy," the paper said.

    And what measures were looked at

    Changes to welfare, tax reliefs, and revenue were suggested as options.

    The government reaction was in the budget.

    The Budget documents revealed a number of options were considered for the KiwiSaver changes, including completely removing the government contribution, or restricting it so only those aged between 18 to 25 could receive it.

    Getting rid of Best Start entirely was also canvassed, but Treasury and Inland Revenue said it would reduce household incomes and increase child poverty.

    So a government would appear to have an on-going problem with a lack of revenue growth that it has no idea for how to address – so far – fast track legislation, seeking foreign investor activity, opening up the conservation estate and the OIO rule changes.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/572116/budget-documents-find-8-point-5-billion-gap-between-costs-and-savings

  3. joe90 3

    Hopefully this will open the door to this thug being charged for his alleged war crimes.

    .

    The High Court has thrown out Ben Roberts-Smith's bid to overturn a ruling there was substantial truth to war crime allegations against him.

    It came on the same day as a decision about the costs of his unsuccessful appeal was handed down in Sydney.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-04/nsw-ben-roberts-smith-special-leave-application-rejected-court/105733410

    • PsyclingLeft.Always 3.1

      I (and I think you also) have commented about that scumbag before. No VC hero…IMO could well be just a murderer. I did credit the other SAS troopers who gave evidence…quite possibly at risk to themselves.

  4. SPC 4

    If fully staffed wards are required then the Minister can jump the queue for an allocation of funding.

    Health NZ has agreed to binding arbitration to resolve its protracted contract dispute with senior doctors – but the union has yet to commit.

    In a letter to both parties on Thursday, Health Minister Simeon Brown gave them until 4pm on Friday to respond to his urgent request to let a third party decide the terms of the contract.

    Health New Zealand has issued a statement saying it "welcomes the opportunity" to put patients first and to focus on their needs.

    http://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/572089/health-minister-simeon-brown-demands-union-and-health-nz-go-to-arbitration

    An apology

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/571975/health-nz-apologises-to-nurses-union-after-ombudsman-s-scolding

    The background.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/571718/union-says-health-nz-s-delay-in-releasing-data-was-politically-motivated

  5. SPC 5

    It seems the growth in homelessness has led to a semblance of taking the matter seriously.

    • Expanding the Housing First Programme with an additional 300 social homes.
    • Provide $10 million additional funding for support services for people sleeping rough.
    • Increase the efficiency of transitional housing.
    • MSD assess all beneficiaries going into social homes for good cause to redirect their benefit to contribute to accommodation costs.
    • Encourage Ministry of Social Development (MSD) staff to use greater discretion when assessing emergency housing applications.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/572188/broken-housing-system-more-support-coming-for-rough-sleepers-government-announces

    Concerns about the emergency housing policy.

    https://www.1news.co.nz/2025/07/20/many-link-govts-emergency-housing-policy-to-homelessness-rise-minister/

  6. thinker 6

    I wondered if Luxon is quite relaxed about the fiscal hole because he knows he won't be in government when it bites.

    It's an old political trick, when the government is sinking like the Titanic, scuttle the other lots lifeboats.

  7. gsays 8

    It's what it says on the tin.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360815002/green-mp-benjamin-doyle-resigns-citing-safety-concerns

    Does anyone know of Mike Davidsons credentials? A Christchurch Community Board candidate.

  8. hetzer 9

    Well if Doyle has been getting death threats i think its disgraceful and I dont understand how people can get so wound up. Yes he is a man in a frock, but so what?

    • weka 9.1

      it's the rise of the far right and fundamentalist right. Peters emboldened them. We should be very concerned about the trend.

      • Grey Area 9.1.1

        All true. At the same time when it was confirmed Tana was to be removed I looked at the Greens' 2023 list, looked for his bio etc, and thought "oh dear".

    • He is not a "man in a frock". He is a middle class, white bloke with a female partner and a child. He seems to have some "interesting" hobbies and like many opportunists and paraphilics, has fastened onto the "Alphabet Swamp".

      Any threat to an MP should result in a follow up from the Diplomatic Protection Service. It is long past the time we need to make it quite clear that such things are not acceptable.

      • Karolyn_IS 9.2.1

        Doyle has Ngāpuhi ancestry.

        And I also agree that threats of violence, death, etc are totally unacceptable and there seems to be too much of that happening, especially to high profile people. And threats to MPs' families are totally out of order.

        I cannot take "non-binary" self ID seriously. It seems an easy option for anyone to claim special status. Most of us could easily make that claim – I could just cite my formative years as a widely known 'tomboy', and adult life where I have failed to conform to sex-based stereotypes and expectations.

        I am more obviously gender non-conforming than some people I've seen who self ID as non-binary. The sex of all the ones I've seen, including Doyle and Darlene Tana, can easily be identified visually.

        Some say it's not necessary to be androgynous to be an NB, so I don't really know what non-binary ID actually means, if anything.

        • weka 9.2.1.1

          for some it seems to be a rejection sex roles and stereotypes, and for some it's about being queer in the sense of outside the social norms of self expression. That's fine, let's just call it a range of people that are gender non-conforming. As you point out there are GNC people who aren't queer, and the problem with the queer community is what they want to enforce.

          The blurring of GI and sex leads to people saying NB males should be in women's spaces, but there's never any explanation or examination of that, and it just comes across as sexist nonsense, as if woman is the default category for people that don't want to be men. By all means men, opt out of your gender stereotypes, that's what feminists have been on about all this time. Just don't do that without regard for women's politics. Stand up proud in your own.

          • Karolyn_IS 9.2.1.1.1

            Totally agree – especially re NB men appropriating women's spaces and provisions, which makes no sense and is not acceptable.

            There’s an added thing with NB ID in that they also seem to believe that gender self-ID, including non-binary ID, trumps sex.

            • weka 9.2.1.1.1.1

              hence the Law Commission Review. Can't bring myself to read it yet. We had an opportunity to do right by women and trans people and the LC just blew it.

              • Karolyn_IS

                I've had a look through it and read some bits. It's basically just repeating the theory and provisions dictated by the trans lobby.

                It does recommend that the HRA keep sex as a protected characteristic, but won't define it. It's definition of 'gender identity' is a non definition because it defines gender ID in terms of itself + the misnomer 'gender assigned at birth' + possibly 'gender expression',

                It recommends including gender identity in the HRA as a protected characteristic, where it is defined as:

                “a) gender expression, and

                b) the relationship between a person's gender identity and their sex assigned at birth.”

                'Sex assigned at birth' was originally used for people with DSDs who were misidentified as the opposite sex at birth due to having atypical genitalia. DSDs are medically and scientifically identified and often their actual sex is not identified til puberty.

                Given the Law Comm report also recommends to include "innate variations in sex characteristics" ( ie people with DSDs, without defining 'sex'?) as a protected characteristic in the HRA, I think the term "sex assigned at birth' should be kept for them.

                The report recommends that in the vast amount of cases, women's/girls' spaces should allow anyone who self IDs as a woman/girl to access them. They say it's too difficult to police people by sex as NZers would not accept carrying IDs that could be used to verify sex.

                They repeat the dodgy trans lobby lines that women who are GNC would easily get excluded from female spaces, and that people can't easily tell who is male or female (research shows they can).

                The report is effectively recommending that any male who says the magic word's "I ID as a woman/girl', or "I ID as non-binary", should be able access women's girls spaces/provisions, without afore mentioned IDs. That would be far more difficult to police than making women's and girls spaces for the female sex only.

                They recommend refuges be left to decided who they include in their spaces and how.

                In the end the reasoning and evidence they present is poor.

                They recognise that some women (and some men) want sex-based changing rooms, and refuges, etc for privacy and dignity. However, they claim that trans IDed males are harmed more by being excluded from the spaces of their choice, and that over-rides women's/girl's needs for privacy and dignity.

                They quote submissions that claim trans people are psychologically harmed by gender critical views. So, I guess they mean psychological harms to trans IDed males by being excluded from female spaces are a valid concern, but there's little consideration of any such harms to women from including them.

                They give a bit of a fig leaf saying that if it is a big concern in those instances cubicles should be provided.

              • SPC

                What I found surprising was that there were little more than a 100 submissions (many by groups).

                • Karolyn_IS

                  I think it was mostly groups who were invited to submit – I could be wrong.

                  • SPC

                    No they present discussion papers and invite public submissions.

                    PS

                    One can see the Law Society submission to the Law Commission on Hate Speech via this list (14 March).

                    And also the one on

                    A review of the protections in the Human Rights Act 1993 for people who are transgender, people who are non-binary and people with innate variations of sex characteristics (Issues Paper 53), 5 September 2024.

                    https://www.lawsociety.org.nz/professional-practice/law-reform-and-advocacy/submissions/discussion-papers/

                    • Karolyn_IS

                      Oh. Actually, I submitted to that. I checked my email and have a reply saying it had been received. I've done so many submissions in the last couple of years, I've lost track.

                      I have a word document in which I wrote my answers, and then I think I added to them to the online form.

                    • SPC

                      I remember seeing the (Sept one) form with all the questions on it.

                      I got an email this week on the 14 March one.

                      “We received 96 submissions in total. We received submissions from community organisations, members of the public, legal professionals, academics and other experts. The submissions received will help us decide whether to recommend changes to the law on hate crime and what any changes should look like.

                      The submissions received and a summary of them can be viewed below.”

            • SPC 9.2.1.1.1.2

              Do the non binary born male (biological sex) claim the right to enter women's spaces?

              The non binary simply claim not to identify as on the male or female spectrum, for some it is probably connected to being bi-sexual because they present as androgynous.

              PS Calling this a paraphilia is the same bigotry as some display against gay, lesbian and bi-sexual people.

              This is one of the less appealing features of a culture war, a bit like "civilian casualties".

              • Karolyn_IS

                An eg, Nelson Women's Centre:

                Nau mai, haere mai & Welcome to the Nelson Women's Centre

                We are a community hub offering practical support for women and non-binary individuals through counselling, group events, workshops, sharing food together and access to our social worker.

                I have heard there are non-binary, or 'gender diverse' males in some women's sports in NZ.

                Here is a contested eg of a Kiwi 'gender diverse' male netballer wanting to play in an Aussie women's netball team.

                The Law Comm recommends sports decide male inclusion in women's sports on a case-by-case basis. Some overseas experts say such a system is un workable. I agree given the aggression and bullying exercised by the powerful trans lobby in claiming trans/NB males should be in women's sports.

                • SPC

                  How many of those who identify as non binary (born biological male) do seek/make a claim to a woman's place identity though?

                  I would have thought it minimal.

                  Their turf being the unisex ones (including mixed sports).

                  Women's sport has those non binary born biological female.

              • weka

                Do the non binary born male (biological sex) claim the right to enter women's spaces?

                Not all NB. But some do, and it's def a trans rights position. I guess if you're going to let in trans identified males, by not NB males?

                • SPC

                  Short answer, the non binary are not making any claim to be women – they have neither self-identified, nor done so via the "health system process".

                  The trans group position appears to gone beyond the bounds of their own claim, as per the non binary (most of whom probably never asked them to). The word that applies is oxymoron and related synonyms.

  9. aj 10

    Great to see this collaboration taking place. I can't link to it, his cartoons don't appear in the on-line free version, but a great cartoon by Yeo in today's Otago Daily Times on what they are finding up there.

    🤣

    In the remote and pristine southernmost region of New Zealand, an extraordinary atmospheric research initiative is underway — one that promises to reshape our understanding of clouds, aerosols, and their intricate interplay with climate systems

    https://scienmag.com/intensive-year-and-a-half-study-of-new-zealand-clouds-under-new-zealand-german-atmospheric-research-collaboration/#

  10. newsense 11

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360815231/simeon-brown-hopes-auckland-hits-brakes-speed-bumps-law-change

    Oh great. FFS.

    Simeon Brown has decided to rip out the Central Loop and all the rail lines and make them a trucking corridor!
    Wayne Brown has decided to take out all the traffic lights and all the traffic cones.

    They’ve decided to end any project that had already been extensively publicly consulted so that the public can have their say and plan to pass a bylaw that would put responsibility on drivers to try to push bike riders off the road where possible and hit them with car jacks where it isn’t.

    Brown (S) then ran around the room ripping off his clothes and yelling about how he wanted to be on South Park and sleep with Satan too before climbing into the rafters and having a nap.
    You’ll never catch me! He cried I can go to the McDonald’s on either side if my 6 lane Pakuranga highway!!!!

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